The global smartphone market is expected to grow by 1 percent in 2025, according to the latest forecast from IDC. This updated projection comes despite an ongoing tough economic climate, inflationary pressures, and generally soft consumer demand. It’s a small but meaningful improvement from IDC’s previous estimate of 0.6 percent growth, showing signs that the smartphone industry still has room to breathe.
Forecast
IDC’s updated numbers suggest global shipments will reach 1.24 billion units in 2025. The slight bump in expectations is largely thanks to the strength of Apple’s iOS, which is projected to grow by 3.9 percent during the same period. Even though the broader market faces challenges, iOS is doing the heavy lifting.
The report also notes a steady recovery, expecting momentum to stretch into 2026, driven by healthy replacement demand. While the long-term CAGR from 2024 to 2029 is estimated at 1.5 percent, IDC believes that consistent hardware upgrades and stable pricing are helping push users to trade in older phones.
Regions
When you break it down by region, the global picture looks mixed. The US smartphone market is forecasted to grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, while the Middle East and Africa are expected to lead with a 6.5 percent surge. Asia Pacific (excluding China) will likely see a modest 0.8 percent rise.
China, on the other hand, is a different story. IDC revised its earlier 3 percent year-over-year growth projection down to a 1 percent decline. The drop is mainly due to the withdrawal of government subsidies and ongoing economic uncertainty.
Here’s a quick look at the 2025 regional growth forecast:
| Region | Projected Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| United States | 3.6 |
| Middle East & Africa | 6.5 |
| Asia Pacific (ex. China) | 0.8 |
| China | -1.0 |
Revenue
Even though shipment volumes are only expected to grow by 1 percent, the value of the market is increasing at a faster pace. Average selling prices (ASP) are expected to rise 5 percent in 2025, helping push overall market revenue up by 6 percent year over year.
That’s because smartphone makers are focusing less on quantity and more on value. Instead of chasing massive sales figures, they’re investing in slimmer designs, foldables, better cameras, and generative AI. This strategy, known as premiumisation, is being fueled by more aggressive marketing and attractive financing plans, especially zero-interest EMIs.
GenAI
Generative AI is also turning into a key focus area for smartphone manufacturers. IDC projects that GenAI smartphones will make up about 30 percent of the market in 2025, crossing 370 million units globally. These AI-powered features are expected to move beyond flagships and make their way into mid-range phones in the coming years.
By 2029, IDC forecasts that more than 70 percent of smartphones shipped will include on-device generative AI. This technology will soon be as standard as dual cameras or OLED screens.
Foldables
Foldables are also making steady progress. IDC expects the foldable market to grow 6 percent year over year in 2025, up from 4 percent in 2024. Growth is set to continue with a 6 percent increase in 2026 and a jump to 11 percent in 2027.
New launches from Samsung, Google, Honor, Motorola, and Huawei are pushing the envelope in both design and usability. Still, despite the innovation, foldables will remain a niche segment, representing under 3 percent of global smartphone shipments by 2029.
Global smartphone makers are adjusting strategies in a tough environment — focusing more on delivering value than just moving units. With iOS growth leading the way, generative AI expanding its footprint, and foldables inching into the mainstream, the industry seems ready to weather the storm and find fresh opportunities even amid economic headwinds.
FAQs
How much will smartphone shipments grow in 2025?
IDC forecasts a 1% growth in global smartphone shipments.
Which platform will lead 2025 growth?
iOS is projected to grow by 3.9%, leading the overall increase.
Is China’s smartphone market growing?
No, it’s expected to shrink by 1% in 2025.
Will GenAI be common in smartphones?
Yes, 30% of smartphones will have GenAI in 2025.
Are foldables becoming mainstream?
They’re growing, but will stay under 3% market share by 2029.
